What’s wrong with our hospitals in Wales?

Do you ever wonder what’s really happening to the NHS in Wales?  There’s lots of talk about hospital ‘down-grading’, shortage of money, patients treated without dignity… and equally, stories of marvellous care, lives saved and miraculous research.  But what does that add up to?  It’s hard to get a balanced view.  Who do you trust?

And yet people in every part of Wales will shortly be asked what they think about some pretty far-reaching proposals for change in the NHS.  How can concerned citizens hope to form a view on something so complex and so contentious?

It was precisely to inject some evidence into this debate that we were commissioned by the NHS in Wales to collect together and review the evidence on the quality of care in our acute hospitals, on the state of the workforce, and on access to hospital care.  And then to draw whatever conclusions the evidence would support on the best configuration of acute hospital services in Wales.

This is what we have now done.  The evidence has been gathered and laid out for people to make up their own minds.

We set out to get some straight answers to four questions that people often ask:

Q: On Safety and Quality: What’s wrong with our current pattern of hospital services?

A: There is an accumulating body of evidence which suggests that patients in Wales do not always get the best possible outcomes from their hospital care.  Outcomes can even vary according to the day of the week you are admitted.  In some key specialty areas – notably major trauma, general trauma and emergency care, stroke care, maternity and newborn care, and paediatrics – the way services are organised in Wales probably falls well short of what the evidence suggests is optimal.

Q: On the Workforce: We’ve got more staff than ever before, so what’s the problem?

A: There are now acute pressures on medical staffing in paediatrics, emergency medicine, core surgical training and psychiatry, and more generally in some of the more remote parts of Wales. A ‘perfect storm’ has developed, with more doctors in our hospitals, but actually less availability in comparison with the demand for their services.

Q: On Access: Is poorer access inevitable to ensure good safety and quality?

A: Centralising services is almost bound to increase some people’s travel times. However, there is a lot which can be done to mitigate the impact of the centralisation of some services. In particular, the risks associated with longer travel times could be substantially reduced, if pre-hospital emergency services were also re-configured.

Q: And putting the elements together: What’s the case for change?

A: There is now a strong case for re-configuring some hospital services, in Wales as elsewhere in the UK. This has a positive aspect – patient outcomes could be improved – and a negative aspect – some services will collapse because of shortages of key staff, if changes are not made proactively.  While these problems have been developing over time, the need for change is now urgent in some key specialties, as levels of medical staffing become acute. 

It is in the nature of this evidence sometimes to be frustratingly vague, inconclusive, contradictory, or simply non-existent, and not always to point to a single answer.  People therefore have to weigh the evidence for themselves, taking into account the interpretations placed upon it, and applying their own common sense. Health policy decisions are usually like this – in part about value judgements – and striking an acceptable compromise between different objectives is something else that readers must do for themselves.

People also need to sift the rhetoric from the reality.  A good example is about ‘centralising’ services.  Whenever you hear that phrase: beware!  It can hide a multitude of sins.  For example, if you have a stroke, you are best treated in a highly specialised stroke unit for the first two or three days of your care.  This might in the future be some way away from where you live, if you live outside the main centres of population.  After that, there’s often no benefit from staying in such a unit, and the rest of your rehabilitation can be provided just as well back in your local hospital.  Is that ‘centralisation’ of services?  It might be, for two or three days; but it’s not for the rest of your time in hospital.  Is it worth it, to get a better chance of surviving without long-term disability?

Finally, we need to recognise that sometimes, services are not as good as they should be, and that some services don’t do as well as others.  That shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone, and people working in the NHS have always known it.  But in the past the NHS has perhaps been too protective of us, allowing people to believe that they will always get the best possible care, regardless of where and when they are treated.  As more and more information comes into the public domain, NHS staff and the public will see that this is not always the case.  We should celebrate this greater transparency, because it provides the best possible incentive to make services better.

We now desperately need a serious public debate about these issues. Most of the NHS in Wales provides a good and robust service; but key bits are giving serious cause for concern.  Choices are now required on what to do about this.  To sit on our hands and ignore the evidence is to put at risk the quality of care for future patients.

Written by Professor Marcus Longley, Director

 Full copies of the Summary of evidence and of the supporting reviews can be downloaded from the website of the Welsh Institute for Health and Social Care, University of Glamorgan at http://wihsc.glam.ac.uk

This article is reproduced from an article appearing in the Western Mail on Monday 14th May 2012.

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Bevan’s NHS: Ready for Retirement, or Just Coming Into Its Own?

A visitor from Mars, struck down by some Earthly bug as he circles in his space ship, couldn’t fail to appreciate how popular is our National Health Service.  Let’s hope that this would give him some confidence, as he waits in A&E for four hours to be treated!

But he might also wonder about two other things: how can an institution already older than most of its patients still be fit for purpose?  And if it’s so good, how come almost no other country in the world has copied it?

It almost feels unpatriotic to question the NHS, but it’s sometimes good to do so, if we are to keep it fresh.  So what’s the case for the prosecution: why might the NHS be ready for retirement?

Let’s look at three of the more serious arguments. 

Who wants one-size-fits-all?

First, you might wonder whether a service created by Aneurin Bevan in post-War, rationed Britain, can hope to satisfy the wishes of the richer, better educated, internet-hungry consumer of the 21st century?  Who, for example, would want to do the weekly shopping in a 1940s-style shop? 

It’s obviously true that we now expect more information, control and convenience in every aspect of our lives.  It’s also clear that the NHS is struggling to keep up in this area.  There is much more to be done in tailoring services to individual patients’ differing needs, and in forging a genuine partnership between patients and those who treat them. 

And in some aspects of healthcare, choice is important.  Not when you’re knocked over in the street and need emergency care.  But when you’re coping with the long-term impact of diabetes, or when thinking about how you want to give birth, personal choices are a vital part of good healthcare.

However, deep down, the NHS also means something else.  Fundamentally, it’s an expression of a set of values, which don’t date.  It’s about compassion and fairness.  There’s just something plain WRONG about people suffering needlessly because they are too poor to afford good healthcare. 

And it’s also about security and selfishness.  None of us can be sure that we won’t need help when we are vulnerable, frail or dependent, so we all have a personal interest in good, universal healthcare.

Perhaps Bevan tapped into something timeless here.  We have a shared need for the NHS, and hopefully our shared needs are not incompatible with our differences.

Who wants a monopoly?

Second, why would we rely on a monopoly provider of healthcare, when in almost every other aspect of our lives (retail, telecommunications, transport, most professional services, energy, even higher education) we have competition and choice?

Well, there are governance arguments– the NHS is democratically-controlled, so not a monopoly in the conventional sense.  There may also be efficiency arguments – competition and choice are expensive, because they rely on maintaining surplus capacity. 

There are certainly good arguments about the nature of healthcare itself.  For those who need the health service most – for example, those with long-term conditions – good healthcare is about coordination and following good practice.  Patients often need help from several different professions, using different sets of technology and skills, doing what the evidence shows is required.   What they don’t need is this being disrupted by competing healthcare organisations more concerned with their own survival than giving the right care when it’s needed.

The great enemy, of course, is complacency and provider-capture – the NHS doing what it finds easiest, not what the patient really needs.  We need to ensure that, in the place of market mechanisms, we have something even more effective to keep the NHS’s toes to the fire.

Who wants higher taxes?

And third, we simply can’t afford Bevan’s NHS.  Relying solely on the taxpayer doesn’t work any more, because people want to pay less tax not more.  Within two years, a gap of more than £250m per year will have opened up between what the NHS in Wales needs simply to stand still, and what it will actually be receiving.  The NHS’s chare of GDP will need to increase from 8.0% in 2009/10 to 10.2% in 2039/40, just to cope with increasing numbers of older people.  Will (mainly young) tax payers find an extra quarter in the share of national wealth taken by the NHS?

This problem isn’t unique to the NHS, of course.  Healthcare systems across the developed world all face the problem of rising healthcare costs, whatever their funding system.  You might well argue that the NHS is inherently more efficient than many, so will cope better. 

But actually, the resolution of this dilemma lies not so much in the funding system or finding another percentage or two of GDP for the NHS.  It actually lies in keeping ourselves healthier for longer – forging a partnership between the NHS and every one of us.  But, as obesity and the other conditions of affluence go on rising, we don’t yet seem to have found out how to do this.

The verdict?

What’s our Martian friend to tell his mates when he gets back to the red planet?  He might talk about the NHS as an expression of our national values; he might talk about the uniqueness of healthcare.  He might talk about the unresolved problems of a human race living longer than it ever has done.

What I hope he’s seen is an NHS fiercely determined to change how it works for the better, while sticking doggedly to the eternal values of compassion, fairness and solidarity.

 Written by Marcus Longley, Professor of Applied Health Policy and Director of the Welsh Institute for Health and Social Care 

He will be giving a public lecture on the issues raised here at 5.30pm on Monday 26th March 2012 in the Cochrane Building, University Hospital of Wales, Cardiff.  Free admission.  For further information or to book a place contact the University of Glamorgan Centre for Lifelong Learning on 01443 482567.

This blog is reproduced from an article in the Western Mail on Monday 26th March.

 

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Have a look at the recent joint Inspectorates’ (CSSIW and HIW) review of the impact of the Older People National Service Framework in Wales

When you have a spare couple of minutes, have a look at the recent joint Inspectorates’ (CSSIW and HIW) review of the impact of the Older People National Service Framework in Wales.  Why? If you were ever in any doubt about the key strategic problem facing the caring services in Wales, reflect on this sentence from the report:

 ‘We started to pull together a long list of recommendations to be issued with this report and realized that we were just repeating what has already been said in various strategies and reports…’

Add this to Carwyn Jones’ recent call for a focus on implementation in public policy, and you have the issue: we can all agree on what we should be doing, it’s just implementing it we find so difficult!

All public services have this problem: the heady mix of essential services, politics and monopoly provision all too easily defaults to conservatism, risk aversion and protectionism. 

What is Wales’ answer?  We have been very clear about what it’s NOT: we are not England, so we don’t believe in markets, choice and competition.  But what we do believe in is… cooperation, collaboration and coordination…?

Is that enough?  Now THERE’S a question for Wales’ new public policy think tank.

Written by Marcus Longley, Director and Professor of Applied Health Policy

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Tribute by WIHSC Director to the Chief Medical Officer on his award of Honorary Doctorate

Pro Chancellor, I present to Congregation Dr Tony Jewell.

Tony has been the Chief Medical Officer for Wales since 2006.  In this role, he leads the medical profession here, is the medical advisor to the whole of the Welsh Government, and champions public health and the clinical contribution to improving the NHS.  He is, in short, the physician for three million people.

But Tony is far more than just a consummate doctor and civil servant.  He is a man who passionately believes in social justice, and in the capacity of all people and communities to defeat the scourge of ill health. 

His whole career shows this.  He was one of the first medical students to choose to include Sociology and Political Science as part of his medical undergraduate studies in Cambridge. After graduating he took time out to work as a sheet-metal worker in a car factory in Coventry, before proceeding to the London Hospital for his clinical training.

 After qualifying as a Doctor, he joined the newly-established GP vocational training course in East London.  This was at a time when general practice in the East End was in crisis – poor quality GPs, predominantly single-handed, with shop-front, lock-up surgeries.  Far from the easy option which he might have chosen.  He subsequently went into partnership and established a Health Centre in one of the poorest parts of the East End.  Later, as the Trades Union Representative on the Tower Hamlets District Health Authority, he was one of the principal supporters of the Health Inquiry that looked at the reasons for the poor health of that community.

But Tony’s desire to improve health and tackle the obscenity of gross inequality took him after, ten years in general practice, into public health.  Again, far from an easy choice, because it meant going back into training for his new speciality.  He trained in the East Anglian region, acquiring a powerful reputation as a highly-effective, passionate and action-orientated crusader for public health.  This was recognised in successive appointments as Director of Public Health for increasingly larger areas, and ultimately as Clinical Director and Director of Public Health for Norfolk, Suffolk and Cambridgeshire. He also served as a highly-respected Chair of the Association of Directors of Public Health.  He was appointed Chief Medical Officer for Wales in 2006.

Chief Medical Officers are senior civil servants, and therefore have no public political views.  But before taking this vow of silence, Tony was a prominent member of the Central Council of the Socialist Medical Association.  As its Chair at the time noted, ‘If ever the discussion got bogged down and did not appear to be leading anywhere I learned to ask Tony to summarise the position and give a steer for action. He never failed to deliver’

During the last five years, Tony has certainly left his mark on Wales.  He has worked tirelessly behind the scenes to shape policy to reduce inequalities, such as through work on child poverty. He has been the principal architect for the development of the Public Health System in Wales with his vision of a Public Health Service, Observatory and Institute.  He has also led calls within the UK to protect children from passive smoking.  Within the Welsh Government he has been a tireless advocate for Wales to act as a global citizen and work with others in sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere to improve health. 

The sort of personal commitment to health which took him to the East End and into public health in the first place, lives on. He has recently completed the Cardiff Half Marathon, and is known by his staff at Christmas Parties to promote the benefits of Fruit Salad rather than Plum Pudding with Cream and Brandy.

Above his desk, overlooking Cathays Park are pictures of the four people he regards as the architects of the NHS in Wales: Lloyd George, Aneurin Bevan, Julian Tudor-Hart and Archie Cochrane.   But despite the best efforts of Tony and these distinguished predecessors, health inequalities continue to blight many of the communities in Wales, including plenty around this University.  Despite rising life expectancy, you can still expect to die five years earlier in some parts of Wales than in others, and to have even more years of poor health before you die.  In his open letter to the First Minister, at the start of his most recent annual report, he wrote:  ‘I must again draw attention to the pernicious inequalities in health outcomes across the country… We need to ensure that the gains are distributed across the socio-economic gradient… Health gain in Wales needs to be fair’

Tony Jewell’s life-long contribution to improving primary care, to the health of the people of this country, and to tackling health inequality, are outstanding.  For all these reasons, Pro Chancellor, I present to Congregation for the award of Doctor of Science, Dr Tony Jewell.

Text of oration given by Professor Marcus Longley at the awards ceremony this morning.

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Big strike day on Wednesday, but only if you’re flying?

The media coverage of this week’s public service industrial action provides us with further evidence that the value base of society has changed and continues to change.  If the strikes are as successful as the Unions intend, we are facing the biggest day of public service disruption for decades.  The knock-on effect on the private sector will also be evident.  So, you’d think we’d be having wall to wall coverage about how the withdrawal of a huge range of important front-line services will impact on the lives of families throughout the land.  Instead, the main story so far (certainly on the BBC anyway) seems to be about the disruption to the poor travellers stranded at Heathrow airport and the threat of illegal immigrants pouring through unmanned border points like a scene from the charge of the light brigade.  The BBC reporters stand faithfully outside the airport terminal speculating about what all this may mean despite the fact that many ordinary people in this country would struggle to locate Heathrow on the map, never mind be contemplating their next flight from there.  Yet they have to make plans this week for their children being home from school, their hospital appointments being cancelled, and their social care services being withdrawn.  I was so relieved on Saturday morning when the BBC news channel interviewed someone from the NHS Confederation who, despite a considerable effort to reassure us that contingency plans would kick in on the day, at least acknowledged that it might be a bit difficult!  Until then I thought I was missing something.

Written by Tony Garthwaite, WIHSC Senior Fellow

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By what they measure, so shall you know them…

It’s very hard for any large organisation to change something which it doesn’t routinely monitor.  And that usually means reliable, valid data, taken seriously. 

Can we therefore answer the following questions about NHS Wales: 

  • How good is the ‘average’ patient experience?
  • How common are neglect and disrespect?
  • Which are the best and worst services, in terms of what patients’ experience?
  • Is the patient’s experience getting better?

 I don’t think we can.  Parts of the service can, because they do routinely ask a representative sample of their patients some intelligent questions about what they’ve just experienced.  But most don’t.  And we certainly have no overall picture. 

Why is this?  Is it too hard?  It certainly does take some staff time and expert resource, and there have been many poor examples of patient surveys… but the good practice shows it can be done. 

So is it because it doesn’t matter? Or it matters less than the other things we do measure?  Those are rhetorical questions. 

The Welsh Government’s commitment to ‘absolute transparency on performance’ is an excellent token of intent.  What will the NHS need to do to be absolutely transparent on its performance in this crucial area – the care patients’ experience? 

It will need to avoid the obvious pitfalls.  For example, it can be difficult to get full answers from patients on some of these issues because of their gratitude for having been treated at all, low expectations, a wish to ‘move on’, poor questioning, or even a concern that if you’re critical you’ll be made to suffer. 

Let me offer four simple steps for 2012 to make performance on the patient experience absolutely transparent: 

  1. Gather common data routinely right across Wales, from a representative sample of patients, using intelligent questions, immediately after their episode of care is over.  Properly validated telephone or postal surveys are two obvious ways to do this
  2. Include measures of both process and outcome in the questions
  3. Agree some smart performance indicators, so we know what ‘good enough’ is, and where we’re going
  4. Publish the results each year.

 That would make the year 2012 something of a watershed for NHS Wales.

 Written by Professor Marcus Longley, Director and Professor of Applied Health Policy

A PowerPoint presentation, which includes material on the subject of this blog, is available in our Resources section.  The presentation was given to the Assembly’s Health and Social Care Committee on 24 November 2011.

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Closer to home?

The Equalities and Human Rights Commission today have published ‘Close to Home’, their inquiry into home care and older people’s human rights in England. Overall they found that half of the people that responded to the inquiry expressed satisfaction with the care received at home from paid care workers. However the other half raised issues of significant concern including neglect, abuse, disregard for privacy and dignity amongst others which in the Commission’s view amounted to breaches of their human rights.

This is hard to hear.

There are half a million service users in England and if only half of them are satisfied, there are some real problems out there. Regulators, inspectors, commissioners and providers must act collectively now to address the woefully poor outcomes being delivered on a daily basis for far too many people. This report, as difficult as it is to read, is a really useful contribution to the debate – by laying bare the difficulties associated with delivering home care and the problems that can result for older people in receipt of this care.

So where do we go from here?

Appropriately enough when faced with the compelling conclusions and recommendations of the EHRC report, key stakeholders have sought to respond – for example the Care Quality Commission in England announced that it would be undertaking inspections of home care agencies to help improve quality and standards, with the Care Minister Paul Burstow endorsing this approach on the ‘Today’ programme this morning.

One other option will be to consider what the statutory sector could do to support the much larger unpaid workforce, without whom the demands on social services departments to deliver services to people in need would rise to levels that they could not deal with. These unpaid carers undertake the vast majority of the care that is provided every day across the UK. Research we completed for the Care Council for Wales last year showed that for every one hour of paid care commissioned by a local authority, there are at least 25 hours being provided by unpaid carers – husbands, wives, mothers, fathers, sons, daughters, and other relatives, friends and neighbours – to older people and others every hour of every day of the year.

We know that fewer and fewer people will be eligible to receive home care as the inevitable contraction of eligibility thresholds results in less people receiving paid care at home. Given this, helping the unpaid carers who provide care ‘closer to home’ is now more important than ever despite the inherent difficulties in getting to hear the voices of these individuals. Whilst in places this is happening, investing more of our shrinking resources in focusing on paid workers given that they will be a decreasing part of the workforce as we move forward seems to me unsustainable. It’s time to get serious about supporting those unpaid carers that hold the whole system together by making no demands on it.

Written by Dr Mark Llewellyn · Senior Fellow, WIHSC

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Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it!

As Winston Churchill once said, ‘those who fail to learn from history  are doomed to repeat it’!

Prediction with regard to healthcare demand is no more reliable than in the world of finance and neither obey traditional Gaussian, Normal, distributions and hence result in ‘boom’ and ‘bust’ or the healthcare equivalents!

I do not believe unscheduled demand for healthcare obeys a normal distribution.

By this I mean, that factors such as height and weight appear to occur in a random fashion and so follow a similar distribution to binomial probability – a normal distribution for large numbers.

However, healthcare demand, like finance, is not a random event, it is driven by outside factors some of which are; the presence or absence of virus combined with human interactions/human nature, again much like finance, ask any Greek or Italian politician at present. Since this is the case, the probability of large fluctuations, in healthcare, or finance, are much greater than could be predicted from the normal distribution, i.e. 66% of the time, calls will be within one standard deviation of the mean and 95% within two standard deviations. This is the reason we have periods of insatiable demand for health care, or crashes in the stock market that appear to be almost impossible, or reported as unprecedented, when in fact if you use the correct maths they are very foreseeable if not predictable. That is why we need to be eternally vigilant and have effective step up and step down policies. I could go on………..

Written by John Watkins, Visiting Professor

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Save our hospitals!

Why do people get so angry when a small local hospital or residential home is ‘threatened’ with closure?  Is it because people particularly want to be looked after in an antiquated, poorly-maintained, under-used and possibly sub-standard facility? 

Probably not.  It might be because they don’t realise that it’s sub-standard – public services are often very reluctant to wash their dirty linen in public.  It might be because they don’t understand what the replacement service involves – services are often inept at explaining change effectively.  It might even be that the service has got it wrong – has failed to understand the difficulties people will face getting to the new service, for example.

But underneath all these obstacles to change lies the peculiar importance of such services to our communities and our collective psyche.  Health and social care are about much more than treating sick people and caring for the vulnerable.  They are intensely political phenomena, in the sense that they have been created and maintained by politicians, responding to their electors’ fears and hopes, and can only survive if they continue to do so. 

The NHS is perhaps the greatest tribute ever paid by this country to our shared sense of mutual responsibility, and our recognition that we are all potentially vulnerable.  We find it deeply offensive that sick people might be turned away from a hospital, or given second rate care, simply because their wallets are empty.  And we all recognise that there, but for the grace of God, go us: personal calamity can reduce us all to poverty and dependence.

So health and social care are the ultimate high-minded insurance policy: we protect ourselves, and we feel good at the same time.

But things need to change, and we need to change the face of health and social care.  The way we deliver services is still dominated by models and assumptions that date from the 1960s.  District General Hospitals and Residential Homes for the Elderly were once a wild aspiration; now they cant cope with technological advance and client choice.  Cottage hospitals need to be reinvented, and people increasingly want high quality, tailored and reliable care in their own homes. The trick is to preserve the original values, while changing almost everything else, if services are still to be available for an ageing population.

People oppose change for all sorts of reasons: because they don’t understand it, and because sometimes it’s simply wrong-headed.  But they also oppose change because they don’t trust those proposing it, and because the current infrastructure has become an integral part of our perception of ourselves.  For many people, grey-suited public sector managers, who understand the price of everything and the value of nothing, pull the strings of service modernisation.  Who would trust them?  Local hospitals and care homes are tangible expressions of the values which underpin the services – they actually exist.  Anonymous bureaucrats, proposing invisible, and often remote alternatives… not very reassuring, is it?

If you doubt the strength of this concern, just look at the ‘save our hospital’ signs outside almost every small town in mid Wales.  (In an excess of enthusiasm, one local resident has even painted ‘save our toilet’ on another well-loved public facility!)  And yet what these services really need is people marching to demand their closure and replacement by something fit for the new century.

So we have paradox: people want to preserve something second rate, because they care so much about it! 

Trust and understanding – the two go together – is the only real key to this problem.  Wales has a big advantage here.  Being small and relatively homogeneous, with strong communities and shared values, should foster trust and cooperation between citizens and their public servants.  The experience of recent attempts at service change often shows that such partnership can’t be assumed: it needs to be worked at.

Written by Professor Marcus Longley

A version of this article appeared in the Western Mail on Monday 7th November 2011

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Challenges facing the new Welsh Health and Social Services Minister

Who would be the new Minister for Health and Social Care?  She inherits a system under almost daily criticism, generally acknowledged to be unsustainable without major reform, and facing real terms cuts of about 20 per cent over the next three years. 

Her agenda essentially falls into three parts.  By far the most urgent is to save money.  The usual euphemism – ‘improving efficiency’ – is now no longer adequate, because doing more with the same amount of money (the usual definition of efficiency) is not going to reduce expenditure by the almost 20 per cent that real budgets will be cut over the next three years.  In other words, cuts means cuts.  Very few NHS managers yet know where they are going to be found.

The second objective must be to force the NHS to implement a new model of care.  This needs to move simultaneously in opposite directions.  It needs to transfer services out of hospital into the community, to support more people at home, while centralising other specialised services into fewer hospitals, where better quality care can be more easily assured.   One of the most visible (and contentious) aspects of this will be ensuring extended opening hours for GP surgeries, a manifesto promise.  More profound will be the aspiration to transfer ten per cent of resources out of hospitals and into the community.

The third objective is probably, in the longer term, both the most important and the most difficult.  This is to find a way – or probably dozens of different ways – of helping people preserve their health, and to cope much better with the consequences of long-term ill health.  The challenges range from the very different problems of obesity and dementia on the one hand, to teenage pregnancy and substance misuse on the other.

Can Lesley Griffiths deliver?  Any one of these three challenges would be a tall order: all three together will make for interesting times.

The worst case scenario sees the NHS scrabbling to survive over the next few years by salami-slicing any service that isn’t strong enough to resist, regardless of effectiveness, popularity or strategic fit.  Staff vacancies will remained unfilled, whatever the importance of the post.  And waiting times, workloads and new services will all take a hit.  It’s a pretty grim picture, its only redeeming feature being that the NHS does actually survive. 

The best case scenario is one in which a fury of innovation, service re-design and partnership is unleashed, making the leap to a better and cheaper service.  As we know, no health care system has ever made such a change, so quickly, and against such odds.  No pressure there, then.

If she is to have any chance of success, there are three key arenas to focus on.  The first is the opportunity afforded by the NHS reorganisation carried out by her predecessor.  This created seven Health Boards which brought together all the services in a locality, ending the nonsense of the ineffective commissioner/provider divide, and bringing primary, community and secondary care (the hospitals) all together in one whole.  So far, the change hasn’t gone much beyond the organisational chart on the Chief Executive’s office wall.  Now is the time to make it a reality, because this is the way to stop inappropriate hospital admissions and to help people to manage their own conditions, themselves both game-changing innovations.

 The second opportunity paradoxically comes from across the border in England.  The NHS there is in such a mess, that Wales can now make clear its own alternative vision of the NHS.  We no longer need to apologise for perceived failure – we are clearly doing better than England.  In particular, we need our own clear, consistent and compelling narrative of how one makes such a great lumbering beast as the NHS embrace painful change.  Notions like ‘choice’, ‘competition’ and ‘responsibility’ have been commandeered by English propagandists, and they now almost sound like dirty concepts in Wales.  But choice is a defining characteristic of any civilised health care system; competition is a powerful agent of improvement; and responsibility is a concept well known to Bevan.  The challenge is to seize these concepts back, define them to suit our needs, and set them free in Wales.

Finally, the Minister has the prime responsibility for the politics.  Previous attempts to make the sort of changes described here floundered when Welsh citizens rejected what they regarded as ill-conceived and deceitful changes to their local health services.  People need to be persuaded, not just that change is unavoidable, but that it’s brilliant!  People should be marching to demand that their local hospital is closed, where care is substandard.  Such pressures will be difficult to manage for an administration without an overall majority, and where many of the professions and trades unions will be more focused on defending the status quo than in arguing for change.  The only advantage the Minister has is that perhaps people have now been prepared for the worst, and will accept that painful change really is inevitable this time.

So the Minister inherits all the unsolved problems of her predecessors, at possibly the toughest time for the NHS since the mid-1970s.  Just as the NHS survived that IMF-inspired pain, so it will survive the current banker-induced crisis.  But will it limp out of the ring as a tired and battered 20th-century model, or stride out as a leaner, fitter, 21st-century NHS?  Never waste a good crisis, was the advice given to President Obama.  Ms Griffiths will perhaps also heed that advice.

Written by Professor Marcus Longley, Director and Professor of Applied Health Policy, Welsh Institute for Health and Social Care

This blog is taken from the recent article by WIHSC Director, professor Marcus Longley, in the Institute of Welsh Affairs quarterly journal, Agenda http://www.iwa.org.uk/en/publications/view/210

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